Indonesias real GDP y/y growth likely slowed in Q3. Quotes from Standard Chartered: -The National Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce Q3 GDP data on 6 November. We expect real GDP to have grown by 5.7% y/y (3.1% q/q), versus 5.8% y/y (2.6% q/q) in Q2. Household consumption likely remained the key driver, owing to the Ramadan season. -We expect investment to have slowed in Q3 due to stronger cost-push inflationary pressure from subsidised fuel-price hikes in June, basic electricity-tariff hikes of 4.3% in July, and the weakening Indonesian rupiah. -Net export growth likely remained weak, due to a sluggish export recovery and strong import demand; we do not expect net exports to have contracted. We believe government expenditure had a limited impact on GDP growth, owing to slow absorption of the budget. We forecast real GDP growth of 5.8% in 2013 and 6.0% in 2014.
Posted on: Tue, 05 Nov 2013 11:24:53 +0000
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