PAC MANS WEDNESDAY DOUBLE: PAC Man here. Got back to business on Monday with a winning double, let’s go again today, here are today’s selections: You will need a Bet365 account to find these selections. Sign up using the following link to find these games -->bet365/home/?affiliate=365_191052 SELECTION A: HJK Helsinki v FC Inter (Finland Veikkausliga) – 4.30pm Kick Off RECOMMENDATION: HJK HELSINKI -1, -1.5 ASIAN HANDICAP @ 1.800 1st plays 10th (12 team league). HJK have been in good form in the league this season leading the way by 4 points after 14 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses, scoring 39 goals and conceding 13. These 2 losses came early on in the season and they are currently on a great league run of 12 wins and 5 draws, so unbeaten in 17 games. Whereas, Inter have struggled with 26 points from 23 games, scoring 28 goals and conceding 35. They haven’t won any of their last 6 league games, recording 3 draws and 3 losses. If we worked out the difference between HJK’s goal difference (+26) and Inter’s goal difference (-7) and averaged it out per game it equals 1.47, which is marginally ahead of today’s Asian handicap, so that isnt amazing news, but this choice is much more down to the respective home and away records. At home this season HJK have managed 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 22 goals and conceding just 4. They have 6 wins and 1 draw in their last 7 home games, amazingly not conceding a single goal in this home run. In 12 away games so far this season Inter have only managed 1 win, 4 draws and 7 losses, scoring 12 goals and conceding 23. The 1 away win came in their first away match of the season, so since then they have only managed 4 points in their last 11 away games, and in their last 6 away games they have only managed 1 point. Truly shocking form on the road. So now if we worked out the difference between HJK’s home goal difference (+18) and Inter’s away goal difference (-11) and averaged it out per game it equals 2.52, so now double today’s Asian handicap. These 2 teams have played each other 3 times so far this year, with all 3 fixtures taking place on Inter’s turf. These games resulted in a 3 v 3 draw, a 0 v 2 win and a 1 v 3 win. So today’s Asian handicap was covered in 2 out of 3 of these games. Also, last time these 2 played with HJK at home (14 months ago), the score ended in an impressive 6 v 0 victory for HJK. Unfortunately HJK picked up a bad injury to their first choice keeper in a friendly against Barcelona on Saturday and he will not be available for a while. However, Inter currently have a worse injury list from what I can see with numerous players missing. Another thing to note is both teams have important semi-final cup matches this coming Saturday, but HJK have said they need to concentrate on this league match first with Lahti hot on their tails. Whereas, Inter came out with a similar statement saying that firstly they need to fully concentrate on this match, but closely followed it by saying with 2 matches in 4 days they will have to rest some players and mix it up over the 2 games. Reason behind this seems clear, Inter are currently safe by 9 points and a much superior goal difference to the bottom placed side, so they are reasonably safe to concentrate on an opportunity to win some silverware in the Cup, rather than HJK who have to concentrate more so on their attempt to win the league. With HJK’s recent record of 19 points in their last 7 home games and Inter’s record of 1 point in their last 6 away games, and the fact HJK will be more concerned with this result with more to play for I believe HJK will win this game with ease. One last thing to say is that in HJK’s games they tend to be rather even despite winning a lot of them, so don’t be worried if there is no rball rape going on. SELECTION B: FC Jurmala v FK Jelgava (Latvia Virsliga) – 5.00pm Kick Off RECOMMENDATION: FK JELGAVA -1.5, -2 ASIAN HANDICAP @ 1.825 10th plays 3rd (10 team league). Jelgava have performed well this season with 12 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses, scoring 37 goals and conceding 21. Jelgava are currently in the final UEFA Europa League spot only by goal difference and it is essential they win this game and get a further goal difference boost with a high scoring win today. They have only lost 1 of their last 14 leagues games which is an impressive record. On the other hand Jurmala have simply been awful, winning just 1 game, drawing 4 and losing 19 games, scoring 17 goals and conceding a massive 71 goals. They are currently 5 points off the relegation play-off spot and 9 points off safety, both of which are massive asks considering they have only managed 7 points after 24 games. Jurmala’s 1 win actually came long ago and they are now on an awful run without a win in 20 games, with 17 of these being losses. If we worked out the difference between Jelgava’s goal difference (+16) and Jurmala’s goal difference (-54) and average it out per game it equals 2.92, so well ahead of today’s Asian handicap. With us backing the away team here it is always a slight concern, but Jelgava actually have a better away record than home this season and the same goes for Jurmala, which both suits this bet. Jelgava have won 6, drawn 4 and lost just 1 away game this season, scoring 18 goals and conceding 11. On the other hand Jurmala have just 1 point from their 11 home games so far this season, scoring 7 goals and conceding 34. They have now lost 9 home games in a row and have only managed to score in 1 of their last 7 home matches. If we now worked out the difference between Jelgava’s away goal difference (+7) and Jurmala’s home goal difference (-27) and averaged it out per game it equals 3.09, again well ahead of today’s Asian handicap. Jelgava have played a number of the same teams on the road as Jurmala have played at home: Jelgava beat BFC Daugavpils 0 v 2 and 2 v 3, whereas Jurmala lost to them 1 v 2; Jelgava drew with Spartaks 1 v 1 and beat them 0 v 1, whilst Jurmala lost to them 0 v 1; Jelgava drew with Metta/LU 1 v 1, whereas Jurmala lost to them 0 v 3; Jelgava drew with Ventspils 0 v 0, whilst Jurmala lost to them 0 v 6; Jelgava drew with Skonto 1 v 1, whereas Jurmala lost to them 0 v 5; Jelgava lost to Liepaja 2 v 1 and beat them 2 v 3, whilst Jurmala lost to them 0 v 1 and 2 v 3; and lastly Jelgava beat Daugava Daugavpils 2 v 3, whereas Jurmala lost to them 2 v 3. So across these 10 comparisons Jelgava outperformed today’s opponents by 6 goals once, 3 goals twice, 2 goals 4 times, 1 goal once and on 1 occasion had the same result. So with today’s -1.5, -2 Asian handicap that would convert to 4 wins, 4 half wins and 2 losses. A record we would all be happy with on our own bets. These 2 teams have faced each other 3 times so far this season, twice in the league and once in the cup, and this is how the results went: Jelgava won all 3 games by score lines of 1 v 7, 5 v 0, and 1 v 3. Therefore all 3 covered today’s Asian handicap, with 2 wins and 1 half win. Another bit of good news. There seems to very little said about injuries and team news in the usual places (club websites etc), so for now I am going with the theory of no news is good news. DOUBLE ODDS: 3.28 (2.28/1) For anyone without an account Bet365 will match your initial deposit up to £200. They offer the widest range of markets on all the obscure games I provide. --> bet365/home/?affiliate=365_191052 Good luck today! PAC Man
Posted on: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 12:29:04 +0000
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