SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE As Tony D’Amato (played by Al Pacino) said in “Any Given Sunday”, “Life’s this game of inches”. This storm illustrates Coach D’Amato’s point. A shift to the east, and we are dealing with lots of snow. A shift to the west, and we deal with a soaking rain. Dont forget the upper levels too. There’s a lot going on, and this is an incredibly complicated setup. I’ll do the best I can to keep this simple. This storm will bring up to 4” of QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) depending on your area. I would say that most areas get at least 2 QPF. It is a strong system (more moisture than the Thanksgiving storm), and we will see wind advisories, gale warnings, coastal flood advisories/watches/warnings, winter weather alerts, and a bevy of impacts through the area. We are now starting to see the pieces come together. A 1045 MB high pressure located in Canada is responsible for our sunny, clear, blue skies today. This piece is also responsible for cold air. The high will shift eastward, and for many this will mean the cold air exits. However, cold will linger in some spots, and we can see some precipitation breaking out via frontogenesis as the low gets closer. TWO pieces of energy need to be watched: the piece in the southeastern United States is the main storm, and the piece in the upper Midwest will steer and guide the storm up the coast. These features will interact with one another, and our low will scoot off the Carolina coast later tomorrow. The storm will eventually move very close to the Jersey shore and eventually into Long Island by early Wednesday morning. The storm will drift northeastward, and then jump back to the northwest on Thursday. There are two opportunities for snowfall: 1. Front side- Monday night into early Tuesday morning: initial precipitation may be of the frozen variety as enough cold air lingers and evaporative cooling works. However, this storm has more warm air than the last one, and it is too close to the coast. The absence of a blocking high to lock the cold air is a major impediment. Therefore, most of Tuesday will feature mixed precipitation, or even plain rain. 2. Back side- Wednesday and possibly into Thursday- potential for moderate accumulating snow (Advisory-level criteria) as the storm shifts north and cold air wraps around the center of the low. Potential for moderate to heavy snow bands, but impossible to determine where this sets up. I expect a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY at some point for portions of Northwest New Jersey and NE PA. NE PA has the potential to get buried. (Id expect watches and/or warnings there). This is an extremely tough call for northwest New Jersey. That advisory will likely be issued twice (Mon PM into Tue AM; Weds/Thurs). COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS will also occur. You will likely see FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. Watch out for WIND ADVISORIES too. As the low intensifies, winds will whip too. This will cause isolated power outages-- especially to areas that get snow. I hope you are ready. This is a preview of our winter. I will have one more report out before the night ends. - MB
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 21:16:37 +0000
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