Sebastien Galy (Societe Generale): se la #Grecia esce dall #euro, la #dracma si svalutera dell11% in termini reali. One scenario is the usual last minute deal for Greece, the tail risk is an exit controlled or not. Fair value of the drachma - Should Greece leave the eurozone in a well-controlled fashion, a new Drachma (GRD) could fall at least 11% in real terms based on a Natrex model. This drop will depend crucially on the considerable amount of debt that would have to be forgiven/restructured and the credibility of the authorities. See the last fx weekly for the details. Note that a virtual GRD is cheap cyclically and structurally had Greece not had a debt sustainability problem. Note also that balance of payment style models are not very reliable as it is difficult to find a period of stability in Greeces external position.
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 20:29:15 +0000
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