Severe Weather & Rainfall Alert Saturday the 16th of November, 2013 for Logan Todays Severe Weather Threat Is High Discussion: *** Thunderstorms currently developing, confidence increasing for severe thunderstorms today. Some high end severe thunderstorms possible *** Today is a highly complex setup for Southeast Queensland but it contains a lot of uncertainty. This morning a supercell developed over the eastern suburbs of Brisbane and intensified into Moreton Bay producing a tornadic waterspout (stronger than normal waterspouts). This outlines the potential for significant severe storms in the region today. A very strong upper trough will help bring very strong instability over the region - this coupled with highly favourable upper level wind shear for supercells has the potential to bring some very severe thunderstorms to the eastern half of the Southeast Coast district today. However at the other end of the scale, as the day progresses the atmosphere will become a little drier in the low levels which is likely to have some impact on storm development and longevity today. So while the chance of storms is somewhat uncertain, the potential they could be severe is quite high. Essentially, if storms do develop and can become organised, they could become quite destructive - this is more likely from about Brisbane to the Gold Coast, with conditions possibly tending drier further north (if storms occur in the Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor theyre more likely to occur during the early afternoon before the atmosphere becomes drier). However it is the type of day that could go either way (if conditions become too dry, then storms wont develop or will struggle to remain organised giving little concern or impact, but if storms can become established then they could cause significant concern in areas around about 50km from the coastline). Storms will move to the east at 30-50km/h, but stronger storms will adopt a more NE path. One area that could be one to watch will be the Border Ranges, with the combination of the ranges helping in storm initiation, and if a storm becomes organised it could swing towards the NE. A storm setup like today is quite rare - in summary, there is a lot of uncertainty in what will happen. The chance of storms is low-moderate, but the chance of these becoming severe is high. A large amount of cloud is beginning to build over central Australia - thats likely to begin to extend into the southeast corner tomorrow which will impact on storm potential. However during the afternoon and even more so tomorrow night, expect a few showers and possible storms to move through - along with thundery rain areas. However the highest chance of storms tomorrow will be mostly over the western half of the Southeast Coast district. These are unlikely to bring damaging winds and large hail but some locally moderate falls are possible tomorrow night and possibly continuing on Monday. The main threats will be cloud to ground lightning and possible locally heavy rainfall tomorrow night - with any lightning on Monday starting to become much less frequent. Accumulative falls of around 40-60mm are possible tomorrow and Monday but some higher totals are possible. If rain clears early on Monday then the chance of storms will increase during the afternoon but these are! nt expected to be significant. Fortunately a drier southerly change will move through on Tuesday and finally bring some more stable weather to the southeast corner with fine weather expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Weatherbrief Saturday 16th Sunday 17th Monday 18th Tuesday 19th Wednesday 20th Temperature 28 19 26 18 24 17 29 16 30 Brief Forecast Late shower or storm Late showers, chance storm - overnight rain Rain periods, showers - easing Fine Fine Max Rainfall Chance (9am to 9pm) 40% 70% 75% 0% 0% Chance Thunderstorm Moderate Low Very Low N/A N/A Chance of Rainfall Saturday 16th Sunday 17th Monday 18th 0900-1200 0% 10% 75% 1200-1500 20% 30% 70% 1500-1800 40% 50% 65% 1800-2100 40% 70% 60% 2100-0900 40% 80% 60% 24 Hour Rain 6-10mm 10-20mm 10-20mm Severe Weather Threat - Next 24 Hours Chance Hail 2cm Chance Wind Gust 65km/h Chance Wind Gust 90km/h 0900-1200 0% 0% 0% 1200-1500 15% 15% 15% 1500-1800 25% 40% 25% 1800-2100 25% 40% 25% 2100-0900 10% 15% 10% Negligible 5% or less Low 5 - 30% Moderate 30 - 60% High 60% or higher
Posted on: Sat, 16 Nov 2013 03:48:21 +0000
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