Severe Weather & Rainfall Alert Thursday the 14th of November, 2013 for Logan Todays Severe Weather Threat Is Low Discussion: Some afternoon and evening showers and storms appear likely over the Southeast Coast region once again today thanks to strong instability and the presence of a surface and upper level trough. However upper level shear is weaker today than yesterday which will bring a different type of storm. The strong instability should be sufficient for large to very large hail, heavy rainfall and possible damaging wind gusts (the main threats today are in that order). However a band of morning showers and storms over the northern Darling Downs is extending some cloud cover over the Southeast Coast region (especially the northern half) which is making todays scenario less clear. This mornings activity may impact on the po! tential strength of thunderstorms north of about Brisbane. Some morning showers and storms are also possible north of Brisbane to Gatton (if morning showers and storms end up extending south of this line late this morning then that may reduce the severe potential for all areas today). This mornings storms may contain brief heavy rainfall and some lightning but are unlikely contain damaging winds and large hail. Providing cloud cover and showers/isolated storms do not extend or become substantial south of Brisbane this morning, then some severe-pulse thunderstorms are likely over the western and southern parts of the Southeast Coast district (south of Gatton - Ipswich - Logan). This means that storms would intensify and become severe for 20-30 minutes and then weaken - possibly initiating other thunderstorms nearby that may produce similar conditions. Areas close to the ranges are more likely to receive thunderstorms which also means that the Gold Coast is probably more likely to receive storms than areas up towards Brisbane. Later this evening some further showers and storms may move through the region but storms later this evening and tonight should be weaker and generally non-severe. In summary - storms are likely today, as is some severe activity - but severe storms will remain isolated and should remain short-lived (long tracked severe storms appear unlikely). This means the chance of a severe storm at any one location is fairly low, but is highest over the western and southern parts of the region where there has been less morning cloud. Tomorrow continues to remain challenging with the surface trough close to the coast. Overall expect at least one or two isolated storms over the eastern half of the region (east of about Crows Nest to Boonah). If storms do develop they should track towards the coast where they will intensify and these may contain damaging winds and large hail once again - but expect storm activity to be very isolated tomorrow. Saturdays storm setup has the potential to be quite significant. A strong upper trough will push into the region and bring strong instability with the preliminary indication of some higher end severe thunderstorms to develop over the region and affect many areas. On Sunday expect a few showers and a storm to develop late in the morning/early in the afternoon and then tend to thundery rain areas with possible moderate falls of 20-40mm developing across the region. That will clear early on Monday morning but leftover moisture and instability may trigger a further shower or storm once again during the afternoon. Conditions should become a little more settled on Tuesday for at least a brief period of time. Weatherbrief Thursday 14th Friday 15th Saturday 16th Sunday 17th Monday 18th Temperature 29 19 30 19 27 18 25 18 27 Brief Forecast Chance late shower or storm Chance late shower or storm Late shower or storm Showers, chance storm Morning showers, possible late shower or storm Max Rainfall Chance (9am to 9pm) 60% 25% 60% 75% 55% Chance Thunderstorm Low Low Moderate Low Low Chance of Rainfall Thursday 14th Friday 15th Saturday 16th 0900-1200 10% 0% 0% 1200-1500 40% 20% 30% 1500-1800 45% 25% 60% 1800-2100 60% 10% 60% 2100-0900 60% 0% 55% 24 Hour Rain 4-8mm 2-4mm 10-15mm Severe Weather Threat - Next 24 Hours Chance Hail 2cm Chance Wind Gust 65km/h Chance Wind Gust 90km/h 0900-1200 0% 0% 0% 1200-1500 15% 20% 10% 1500-1800 20% 30% 15% 1800-2100 5% 20% 0% 2100-0900 0% 5% 0% Negligible 5% or less Low 5 - 30% Moderate 30 - 60% High 60% or higher
Posted on: Thu, 14 Nov 2013 00:52:57 +0000
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