Snowfall observations, Jefferson NJ: (These observations, like the yellow line in football games, are unofficial. Theyre my measurements conducted at the Matt Barones Weather table.) 5:08 AM: 0.5 5:40 AM: 1.0 7:37 AM: 3.0 10:15 AM: 4.5 Timeline and a look at the next storm: - Snow of varying intensity will continue today. The snow will slowly exit the area this afternoon. I went with total accumulations of 3 to 7 inches here with locally higher amounts. - Once I watched this storm develop over the Tennessee river valley, I was impressed with the amount of moisture. This storm grew rather quickly, and dumped a heavy snowfall in a relatively short period of time. Note from 5:00 to 8:00 we had snowfall rates of around an inch per hour here in Jefferson. Also note how this storm hit right during the morning rush hour. How convenient. - This is the first domino with regard to the next storm. When you have a fresh snowpack, you establish cold-- especially at the lower levels. We do have to worry about warm air aloft with the next storm, and that will be a major forecast challenge. - Tomorrow night looks to start as snow. We could see some mixing with sleet and freezing rain. I think the Jefferson area and many other places in NW NJ struggle to get to freezing tomorrow. Were looking at about an inch of QPF, give or take. Im sticking to my guns... sticking with my original 5-10 call. I think that looks best. Obviously, any mixing of sleet/freezing rain cuts snow totals. I also believe (and Ive said this for a few days now) that the Tuesday-Wednesday storm stays all frozen precipitation. Please note this is a Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening storm. - The weekend storm can very well be a blockbuster. Well get to that later. - We are staring at the real possibility of snow depth (snow on the ground) of TWO FEET by next Monday. Whether that verifies remains to be seen, but its an indicator of the rough week of weather were about to endure.
Posted on: Mon, 03 Feb 2014 16:06:14 +0000