Some rain showers will move through this afternoon and evening. This isnt that big of a deal, and the precipitation will remain all liquid. No modifications to the dailies that I posted yesterday. Lets discuss our storm a bit further: I can say with limited certainty that there will be precipitation over the weekend, but the modeling has solutions everywhere. I jumped on board with the POTENTIAL for a storm, and Ill stay there because the computer models jump all over the place (especially around this time period). Tonight will be interesting as the storm comes onshore. Things to monitor/consider: A: Jet Stream: After the front moves through overnight, we will enter a zonal-ish flow where theres not a lot occurring. The northern branch of the Jet Stream will remain in Canada while the southern branch stays over the southern third of the nation. An ideal setup would involve the phasing of two jets, where the Polar and Subtropical come together to form a storm. B: Many of you ask where the cold air will come from. High pressure will assert itself over the region on Friday, and provide a fresh injection of cold air. C: Storm development in Texas- We must watch the development of the low in Texas. The STRENGTH of this low is paramount in whether or not we have a storm. If the storm is STRONGER, it is more likely to turn NE-ward and not go OTS. Can the system in the midwest interact with the system in Texas? If not, then this piece goes OTS with minimal impact (almost no impact in NJ) D: Theres no ridge on the West Coast to force the polar jet southward. Thats a key factor, and something to monitor. A zonal pattern isnt necessarily the ideal setup. E: Modeling: Computer models must be taken with caution. It is very easy to look at a computer models QPF output, and say oh, here comes a storm or oh were getting nothing. In order to understand what the model is forecasting, one must understand the pattern and look at the myriad of factors behind the forecast. Past analogs are also helpful too, as we can learn from past errors/successes. Thats why Im not willing to fully jump on board and say big noreaster. I think there is POTENTIAL, but theres so many factors that go into this storm (500 MB pattern, jet stream placement, strength of storm in Texas, amount of cold air available, blocking highs, NAO etc.). As time progresses and the players enter the field, then the forecast will become clearer. We also have tremendous disconnect between the operational and control models, which makes things murkier. In the meantime, prepare for a POTENTIAL snowfall over the weekend. Keep checking in for the latest updates. - MB
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 16:35:21 +0000
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