Sport: Basketball Market: Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: Total UNDER 216 ½ points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:30pm AEDT Analysis: Oddsmakers are overreacting from the high-scoring nature in the early going of both Lakers and Mavericks games. While theres no question that the Mavericks have been impressive offensively, while the Lakers have upped the tempo a bit, this total is simply set too high and theres a ton of value with the UNDER. The Lakers are only scoring 100.0 points per game this season. They clearly miss Kobe Bryant on offense and have to make up for his absence by playing better on the defensive end. While it hasnt always been pretty, the Lakers have been much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing 91 points to the Spurs and 103 to the Hawks in their last two contests. When you look at recent meetings between these teams, its easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Lakers and Mavericks have combined for 209 or less points in 16 of their last 17 meetings. The only game they didnt was a 112-108 overtime victory for the Lakers on 4/15/2012. That game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation for 196 combined points. So, not counting overtime, the Lakers and Mavs have combined for 209 or less in 17 straight meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2010. We understand these teams are different this year, but not different enough to warrant this ridiculous 213.5-point total. We’ve added an extra few points as insurance. Take the UNDER 216 ½ points in this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Houston Rockets @ Portland Trailblazers Pick: Trailblazers -1 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 2:00pm AEDT Analysis: The Houston Rockets are in a very tough situation tonight. They will be playing their 4th game in 5 days after losing 118-137 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Theres no question that game took a lot out of them as the Clippers simply ran them to death. That obviously makes matters worst heading into their 4th game in five nights at Portland Tuesday. The Trail Blazers will have a huge edge in rest in this one. They actually come in on two days rest since their 115-105 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, November 2. That followed up an even more impressive 113-98 road win at Denver the previous night. Theres no question this team is improved. Portland had one of the best starting fives in the league last season led by LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. All four of those guys are back to lead the way, and theyre combining to average roughly 80 points per game between them. The Blazers problem last year was that they had no bench. Well, Portland has shored up that area as well. Not only is Robin Lopez an upgrade over J.J. Hickson as the starting center, but guys like Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson are now manning the Blazers bench. Thats a huge upgrade over last years bench, which was historically one of the worst that the NBA has ever seen. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Blazers in a very favourable spot today. Take the Blazers -1 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: Nets -10 points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:30am AEDT Analysis: The Utah Jazz (0-3) comes off a 104-93 loss at home to the Houston Rockets on Saturday. Richard Jefferson led Utah with 18 points and Kanter added 16 for the Jazz, who looked disjointed once the Rockets increased their defensive pressure in the second half. The Brooklyn Nets (1-2) fell to the Orlando Magic 86-107 on the road. The Nets backcourt of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson were a combined 5 of 17 from the field and Garnett made just 3 of 11 shots. Paul Pierce was the top rebounder with seven. That was an embarrassing effort from the Nets on the road in Orlando but the team returns home here where it beat the Heat in the opener. We expect that Jason Kidd will have his team ready to go here and they will feast on a Jazz team that does not look good to start the season. Take the Nets -10 points in this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks Pick: Knicks -6 ½ points Odds: $1.64 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:30am AEDT Analysis: The Knicks lost at home on Sunday to Minnesota. Tonight they look to rebound here against a Mediocre Charlotte team that has failed to cover 29 of 43 after scoring 85 or less points in their last game. They miss the interior presence of Al Jefferson and that will hurt them here again tonight. The Knicks have covered 6 of 8 at home off a home loss where they lost to the spread by 10 or more points. They also apply to a database system that is 10-1 straight UP and 9-2 to the spread. We want to play on home favourites of 5 or more with 1 day of rest that lost to the spread as a home favourite of 4 or less points and are taking on an opponent that scored 90 or less as a road dog of 5 or more points. Look for New York to get the win and cover, but because they’ve been a bit inconsistent so far on the season, we’re taking a few extra points off the line. Take the Knicks -6 ½ points here for 3 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Tue, 05 Nov 2013 23:14:32 +0000
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