Steve signing in at 8:33 AM. Under mainly clear skies temperatures range from 31F at the Foothills AP to 47F at Hickory. Temperatures had similar variations across western NC with a few below freezing temperatures even near Charlotte. Most of the I-40 corridor was in the low 40s, though. Today well see sunny skies with afternoon temperatures getting well into the 70s in the foothills, high 60s to near 70s in the mountains. With sustained southwest flow Tuesday, we could actually see some upper 70s but clouds will be on the increase Tuesday evening as a frontal system and low pressure area approach from the west. Isolated showers could begin to occur early Wednesday morning. What puzzles me about Wednesday is that we have a strong cold front moving into the area during the afternoon, probably late afternoon. There is a fair amount of wind shear and turning of the wind with height. There are indications that instability should increase during the afternoon. However, our forecast sources, including the Storm Prediction Center, have been pretty low-key about the threat for severe weather. Im not so sure. I believe that were going to see some thunderstorms ahead of frontal passage later Wednesday afternoon and some could contain cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rain. I wouldnt rule out some of these storm organizing and one or two possibly producing isolated wind damage. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon should be around 70F and dew points near 60F. A marginal event? Perhaps but as better data comes in later today Im going to review it and, if needed, provide an update. At this point I just dont trust Wednesdays setup as far as severe thunderstorm potential. After frontal passage Wednesday evening, temperatures will probably drop quickly, changing rain to light snow over the mountains and maybe an inch or so could accumulate along the Tennessee state line. I dont think well see any snow along the I-40 corridor but what were more likely to see is strong and gusty winds into Thursday morning. Thursday itself will be a shock with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s, following upper 70s on Tuesday. The cold air doesnt stick around for very long, we moderate into the low 60s again next weekend, in time for the next system to come together beginning St. Patricks day. This system also appears to be an interesting one with the potential to bring colder air into the area but the forecast models are still debating on how to handle it. We need to keep an eye on the weather early next week because there is at least the suggestion of more winter precipitation.
Posted on: Mon, 10 Mar 2014 13:03:57 +0000
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