Storm Outlook for Friday Aug 23: TODAY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MIDLEVELS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CREATE A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PROVINCE. INITIATION IS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE PROVINCE, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG A WARM FRONT EMANATING EAST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, AND THOSE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR OF 35 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE IN THE EVENING HOURS INTO A CLUSTER THAT WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT TRAVELS INTO MANITOBA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUB-SEVERE. ON SATURDAY, THE THREAT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MANITOBA, WITH RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE, GIVING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG, ALTHOUGH CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS MORE ISOLATED AT FIRST. BULK SHEAR AGAIN AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, AND WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOWING SOME LOOPING, A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL AGAIN GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA IN THE LOW 20S ON SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, A HUMIDEX ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AT ARCTIC BAY TODAY, WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING WARRANT A CLOSE EYE, LEST IT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SHOULD IT DO SO, ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 10 CM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS AND GALES TO MUCH OF THE HIGH ARCTIC. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR GRISE FIORD WHERE 1 KM RESOLUTION GEMLAM INDICATES WARNING STRENGTH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 240000Z. OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE STRONG AND CLOSE TO WARNING STRENGTH INCLUDE CAMBRIDGE BAY AND GJOA HAVEN.
Posted on: Fri, 23 Aug 2013 18:42:38 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015