THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 93.3E IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 181032Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER THE LLCC WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Posted on: Fri, 18 Apr 2014 16:43:58 +0000
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