***TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER & THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK*** NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ...PA/NY INTO WV/KY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF PA/NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PWAT VALUES...SUGGESTIVE OF A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. IT APPEARS THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DECREASES FARTHER SOUTH INTO WV/KY WHERE THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS LESS AFFECT AND WIND FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST CORES IN THIS REGION WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. ...KY/TN/MS/AR... THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE NOCTURNAL MCS CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF OK/AR...WITH THE LEADING-EDGE GUST FRONT OF THE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHEAST OK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM HERE...AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF KY/TN. WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ...OK/KS TONIGHT... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD OF A REGION OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER OK. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET IN NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED TODAY FOR SIGNS OF GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. ..HART/ROGERS.. 09/02/2014
Posted on: Tue, 02 Sep 2014 19:00:13 +0000
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