The Gulf monarchies were once thought immune to the uprisings sweeping the Arab world. Not anymore. Most of the Gulf states are now caught between unsustainable wealth distribution mechanisms and increasingly powerful super modernizing forces that can no longer be controlled or co-opted by elites. The former dynamic continues to manifest itself in widening wealth gaps and increasing real unemployment, despite ramped up public spending programs and urgent public sector job creation schemes. These counter-revolutionary outlays are likely to keep spiralling -- the International Monetary Fund has already predicted that even the wealthiest of the monarchies will run budget deficits within a few years. And in the poorer states, where this strategy is now increasingly inapplicable, street protests keep growing and regimes have had little option but to openly crackdown on dissidents. With even larger protests on the horizon, the window of opportunity for the regions autocratic rulers to agree to some sort of compromise solution -- possibly constitutional monarchies with elected legislatures -- seems to be closing. With only minor exceptions, these regimes have adopted zero-tolerance policies on dissent -- regardless of the cost to their long term legitimacy and prosperity. Even though the Gulf version of the Arab Spring may look a little different to its manifestations in North Africa and Syria -- and however inconvenient it may be to international allies and partners -- it is now a phenomenon that cannot be avoided. The United Arab Emirates rulers -- or more specifically the tight-knit group of brothers surrounding the crown prince of Abu Dhabi -- also seem more resolute than ever to tackle their opposition head on. That has effectively side-lined their late fathers well-honed social contract with his subjects, in favour of the sort of strategies employed by a police state. The dozens of political prisoners seized over the course of 2012 swelled to nearly 100 by the beginning of 2013, with a national security trial beginning in March 2013. The defendants stand accused of trying to seize power, and were even accused of setting up a military wing. All foreign media have been banned from the courtroom, and foreign observers from NGOs and law firms were barred entry to the country. Though the defendants are made up of academics, lawyers, students, judges, and even a member of the ruling family -- most of whom identify with a well-established and peaceful indigenous Islamist organization that has been gently pushing for parliamentary elections -- the authorities seem determined to find a link between them and outside powers. Given the fairly homogenous makeup of the UAEs population, it has proven harder to present opposition groups through a sectarian lens. Instead, the detainees are regularly portrayed in the state-affiliated media as in league with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. But disturbingly for the authorities, the detainees appear to be enjoying growing support across the country: Widespread online discussion about the case is taking place, often in the defendants favour, and members of their extended families have campaigned loudly for their release. foreignpolicy/articles/2013/04/26/why_the_sheikhs_will_fall
Posted on: Sat, 08 Mar 2014 18:09:04 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015