The possibility exists that South Stream can be reborn along a slightly modified route, closely following the Chinese railroad through Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, and Hungary. There would be scant legal difficulties with the final Serbian and Hungarian portions (Budapest was previously resolute in defying all EU dictates), and non-EU-member Macedonia would not be beholden to Brussels’ mandates concerning the troublesome Third Energy Package, leaving only Greece and its EU membership as the main obstacle in getting the project off the ground. There are, however, two large gambles that can change the existing equation and allow for South Stream to be built through Greek territory: A Complete ‘Grexit’: If Greece completely withdraws from the EU, not just in terms of the EuroZone but out of everything the arrangement entails, then it wouldn’t be beholden to the Third Energy Package and South Stream could theoretically restart construction almost immediately afterwards once an agreement is reached with Athens. Of course, this is the most extreme scenario and doesn’t appear to be on the horizon, but with many grassroots activists still literally up in arms and their collective anger ever growing, the situation may spill over into a repeat of 2012’s violence, especially if the EU enacts some kind of asymmetrical ‘punishment’ over an economic ‘Grexit’. This could lead to many unintended aftereffects that could make a full ‘Grexit’ appear mild by comparison. A Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership: A more probable alternative towards resurrecting South Stream would be the enactment of a Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership epitomized in coordinated moves throughout the Balkan energy sector. Specifically, what is envisioned here is a structural workaround in order to avoid the constraints of the Third Energy Package by technically separating the supplier from the distributor, whereby Russia would continue to supply the gas but it would be distributed through a Turkish company. Moscow would only go forward with this major move if it was sure that Ankara could be trusted upon not to repeat the Ukrainian scenario, which would mean that Turkey should properly understand the immense mutual benefits (economic, political, strategic) that such a condominium would entail and the heightened damage to its own interests that would ensue if it sabotaged the joint operation. Such a Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership, the necessary prerequisite to this scenario, could already be in the making. Turkey already made a strong statement over its intended multipolar orientation through agreeing to host the New South Stream in the first place, and if a Russian-Turkish understanding can be reached over Syria (and Turkey is showing some vague signs of this), then a strategic partnership would be the next logical step. As astonishing as this narrative may seem to some readers, it mustn’t be ignored, since Turkey is currently undergoing a transformative shift in its self-identity and geopolitical awareness, and the global transition to multipolarity is having a strong residual effect on its leadership’s future calculations.
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 19:17:12 +0000