This election is surely turning out to be very tough for the ruling coalition in general and National Conference in particular. A cursory survey at the ground level in all the three parliament seat in Kashmir gives one a feeling that wind is in favour of change, and against National Conference. In all the three seats people are talking in terms of ‘vote for change’. It seems that on the ground there is a general dissatisfaction with the performance of the present government. While every party has its own strong holds and one expects people in these areas to vote in a given manner, what should, however, be worrying for National Conference is the fact that a good section of people in many of their strongholds have not voted in their favour. This is besides the fact that cross voting was a common phenomenon in all the three seats. “Mehbooba Mufti would come and give me Rs. 1000 every time, but the present government has snatched even this meagre amount from me. I am a widow, but the ruling government gave me nothing” said Hameeda, a lady voter who had come out to vote at a polling station in Rainawari. Voicing the similar concern, Gulam Mohammad, who had voted for PDP said, “Mustafa Kamal came here a few days ago. For five years he has done nothing for us. Look at the condition of our area, it is pathetic”( RK, May 1, 2014). One could come across similar voices even in the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s own constituency. “Omar never visits his constituency. It is only when they need our votes that they remember us. If even after becoming chief minister he is not able to take care of his own constituency, then when will he do? Therefore, this time we have voted for change” said a seemingly angry group of people at Ganderbal. It is not that people in areas where MLA belongs to opposition parties are extremely happy with their performance, but the discontent with the ruling faction simply seems to be more. If one goes by the estimates that journalists, intelligence agencies, common people and poling agents, then Anantnag Parliamentary Constituency, which witnessed around 28% voting, will go to Mehbooba Mufti. Even the people close to NC are deeply pessimistic about South Kashmir seat. My own analysis of the Anantnag constituency suggests that NC may have missed it in South Kashmir. Anti-incumbency along with cross voting puts PDP at an advantage. It need to be mentioned that not only the Congress workers but even NC’s own workers openly voted in favour of PDP candidate. In the Srinagar parliamentary constituency, traditional bastion of NC, it is turning out to be too close competition between NC and PDP. Although NC is confident that Dr. Farooq Abdullah will win, however, their optimism is not shared by many. While enquiring from one of my friends, who happens to be an NC supporter, about their analysis of the Srinagar Parliamentary seat, he stated that they believe that in Charar-i-Sharif - Budgam segment PDP will be in an overall lead of 10 to 15 thousand, and in Kangan - Gandarbal segment it will be near 50-50. However, they are confident that in Srinagar they will overtake PDP by more than 30 thousand votes. So in their rough calculations Dr. Farooq is going to win by around 15,000 votes. While putting all these figures and fact out, one thing that seems to be missing is the confidence. It is just the hope and wish that they believe will come true. However, if one goes a bit deep and makes a more in-depth analysis, few crucial point come to surface with long term consequences. As Prem Shankar Jha wrote, voter turnout in Charar-i-Sharif and Kangan has increased very sharp, that will benefit PDP, and there has been a dip in voter turnout in Srinagar which is the stronghold of NC (“Kashmir’s Fateful Elections” GK, May 12, 2014). Though this is not completely true as both Chara-ri-Sharif and Kangan have historically been strong holds of NC, however, the fact remains that over a period time other parties, especially PDP have made serious inroads into these areas. Also the fact that there has been for some time now differences between Mr. Abdul Rahim Rather and Hakeem Yaseen over some issue related to electricity, has given a setback to NC’s vote share in Budgam area. Another factor that can play a crucial role is deciding the fate of Srinagar seat is how the young Gujjars of Kangan and adjacent areas voted. They seem to have made a significant shift in their voting preferences. Historically, Gujjars were strong loyalists of Mian Altaf. However, over a period of time PDP has made serious inroads in the Gujjar vote bank of NC. In 2008 Assembly elections PDP candidate Bashir Ahmad Mir gave a tough competition to Mian Altaf. The problem that NC is facing is that their traditional vote bank seems to be drifting away from them. “My family wanted me to vote for NC, as we have been traditional voters of the party, however, I made clear to my family that they can vote for whosoever they want, but I will vote for change (pointing to PDP)”, said a young Gujjar from Fakir Gujjar Basti from Nishat area. While it is very tough to say, with authority, how the 26% voters, who came out to vote in Srinagar Parliamentary Constituency, have voted, however, there are some worrying factors for NC that may harm them in future. The situation is no different in North Kashmir. Although in Baramulla Parliamentary constituency, theoretically, it was a quadrangular competition between National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party, Peoples Conference and Aawami Aithad Party, with each having a substantial base in the area. However, in practice it was always a direct competition between NC and PDP. This parliamentary segment witnessed 39% voting and like other two segments the betting is in favour of Muzaffar Hussain Beigh. While some of the areas that have sitting MLAs from NC (Handwara, Kupwara etc.) witnessed high voter turnout, the rumours of cross voting even by NC workers are worrying the NC leadership. Also in these areas votes will get divided among NC, PDP and PC. The conflict between the coalition partners over cross voting was never more evident than after elections to Baramullah Parliamentary seat. While Congress leader and cabinet Minister Taj Mohiuddin accused local National Conference leaders of siding with PDP during voting in Uri, National Conference leader Mohammad Shafi Uri blamed Congress minister for failing to meet his commitment of supporting the coalition candidate. Mr. Uri accused that not only many Panchayat representatives but even Congress Block President of Buniyar and many Halqa presidents openly sided with opposition parties - PDP and Peoples Conference. The coalition candidate for Baramullah Parliament seat Sharif-ud-Din Shariq openly admitted that the deep rooted differences between NC and Congress over the years resulted in cross voting in the recent elections. Admitting that there is an element of trust deficit among the alliance partners, Shariq stated that the political rivalry between Congress leader Taj Mohi-u-Din and NC leader Muhammad Shafi Uri resulted in division of votes and some workers from both parties voted for PDP( Greater Kashmir, May 10, 2014). This was not the first time that coalition partners were locked in war of words over cross voting. Pertinently, after the elections to Anantnag Parliamentary Constituency on April 24, 2014, NC leader Dr. Mustafa Kamal had accused Congress of indulging in cross voting in favour of PDP and claimed that they will do so aging in other seats. Refuting the claims of Dr. Kamal the senior leader of Congress Mr. Ghulam Ahmad Mir dared the NC leadership to find out in whose favour NC workers voted in South Kashmir ( GK, May 4, 2014). However, Congress strongholds of Dooru and Kokarnag assembly segments openly resorted to cross voting in favour of other parties including PDP. Not only Congress but even NC supporters openly admitted of having voted for opposition candidates. In many polling booths in Door and Verinag NC as well as Congress supporters maintained that they voted for other parties including PDP. The Congress and National Conference may have a pre-poll alliance but the fact remains that both the leadership as well as the cadre of Congress in the valley were strongly opposing any such move. So how they actually behave on the D-day will certainly have a significant impact on the outcome. And at present all indications point towards the fact that NC may have to suffer heavy loss. PDP’s vote share has considerably increased since 2004 Parliamentary election. While its vote share in 2004 was 11.9 percent, it rose upto 20.05 during 2009 Parliamentary election. And during the same period all other parties including Congress and NC have witnessed decline in their vote share. Same is true in terms of vote share in assembly elections. PDP’s vote share increased from by 7% during 2008 Assembly election (Kashmir Times, April 8, 2014). This process may well continue this time around as well.
Posted on: Wed, 14 May 2014 10:50:05 +0000
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