Upset special, yall! There are only two remaining undefeated teams from the major conferences; this week one (MSSU) is a touchdown-underdog (at Alabama), and the other (FLSU) is favored by a single point against an unranked team (at Miami). Think home-field advantage doesn’t mean anything? This weekend we will find out... Here are ten fairly obviously compelling games, including those two, many of which (starred with an asterisk *) I predict will either be upsets relative to betting spreads, or go the way of the lower-rated team. *Mississippi State @ Alabama: Last week I ventured to pick the SEC West (and therefore the conference, really) for Auburn; that was before their second meltdown of the year, last week at home against the inconstant Aggies. Today I would pick the Crimson Tide, but I’ve always thought that in either case, this would be the game that the Bulldogs started a tumble out of that race. If Alabama loses, they are likely out of the playoff even with a win later in November over Auburn, but if Mississippi State loses, it will start to get very interesting how far down they fall in the playoff rankings. The spread is over a touchdown in favor of AL, and I think that only a little bit high. *Auburn @ Georgia: Both teams want redemption for embarrassing losses in the last couple of weeks, and both still have chances to win their respective divisions if they can survive this weekend. Given the pre-season hype around these two, it is something of a pity that this game is not for even more marbles, but it’s certainly not for nothing – with a win Georgia is a strong possibility to go to Atlanta in December (they’d still need Missouri to lose), and if Auburn loses they are all but certain NOT to. Georgia is favored, but I say Auburn by between a FG and a TD. Missouri @ Texas A&M: If there is such a thing as a fortunate draw of two teams out of the SEC West this year, the Mizzou arguably got it: the Aggies are tied for second-last in that division, and the Arkansas Razorbacks (MOs other) own last place outright, being 0% in the SEC under Bret Bielema. Win out, and Missouri wins the East... But I actually expect Missouri to LOSE out from here on, starting this weekend in College Station. The Aggies are playing for little more than pride at this point, but don’t expect that to dent their motivation; more importantly – they look the better team. Texas A&M by, say, four. South Carolina @ Florida: This is the last conference game for the Gators, and with a little bit of help (GA needs to lose, and MO twice) they actually might even win the SEC East despite their calamitous start to the season. The Gamecocks, by contrast, must win two of their last three just to make a bowl game. While SC should beat South Alabama without too much protest, their last matchup against Clemson is far more dubious; beating Florida, therefore, likely makes the difference for them between bowling and howling. But howl they well might – I agree with Florida by a touchdown. *Clemson @ Georgia Tech: Earlier in the year, Clemson looked like an unlucky inter-divisional draw for the Yellowjackets, but now I’m seeing GATech being the unlucky draw for the Tigers. Neither team has much likelihood of going to the ACC championship in Charlotte next month – each lacking tiebreakers against their respective leaders – but both close the season against SEC East schools that are looking vulnerable (albeit SC somewhat more so than GA). Clemson is favored this week, but I am picking the Yellowjackets on their home field by almost a touchdown. *Florida State @ Miami: I’m calling this one for the Hurricanes, not only (1) to imperil the Seminoles’ certainty in the ACC Atlantic division (which they would probably still win even with a loss), but more importantly (2) likely to end their playoff prospects. I reckon Florida State is about the most OVERrated team in the nation, and Miami the most UNDERrated, and last I checked Vegas largely agrees – they have the Seminoles by a single point; I think they were too generous. *Nebraska @ Wisconsin: Speaking of underrated teams, the Cornhuskers are finally starting to get some love, and this week they get a good opportunity to justify it against a very solid Wisconsin team (the Badgers own the only non-SEC conference-game shutout of 5+ touchdowns, and would have had two of them if not for a last second meaningless score by the Terrapins). Even in Madison, I would generally pick Nebraska by just under a field goal, but I think they are likely very hungry, and want to build some suspense in anticipation of a Big-10 championship likely against the likewise ascendant Buckeyes. Ohio State @ Minnesota: It’s a good thing for the Gophers that they are already bowl-eligible, because they have possibly the most challenging final three games in the entire FBS (after this week, it’s NE & WI for them). They will be underdogs by about two touchdowns in all of them, but don’t expect that to discourage Jerry Kill’s boys; did you see what they did to my Hawkeyes last week? But gosh, Ohio State... if them losing to VATech was a surprise back in early September, it is positively incomprehensible now, and since they cannot erase that debacle from history they will do everything they can to demonstrate that they are an entirely different team these two months later. My brain agrees with Vegas that it’s the Buckeyes by two possessions here, but my heart hopes the Gophers at least keep it more interesting. Texas Christian @ Kansas: As of this week, the Horned Frogs know that they no longer need help to break the playoff top-four, but they also know that their place there is not inviolable. They therefore cannot afford to look anything less than dominant in their three remaining games, and all of those are against on-paper far-the-lesser opponents. Anything shy of a three-peat of terrible thumpings could open the door for others (not least a Baylor team that owns a tiebreaker over Texas Christian in the Big 12 race), so expect them to try to punish the Jayhawks thoroughly for being on their docket in November. The spread is four touchdowns for TXC, and I anticipate they might have that margin by halftime of an epic woodshed beat-down. *Georgia Southern vs. Navy: Playing in the Sun Belt, the Eagles haven’t had much in the way of genuine competition so far this year, but they nevertheless have lost only two games by a total of five measly points. For a school that played FCS ball last year, that is pretty amazing, but this weekend they are visiting a Navy team that needs two of its last three games to make the post-season. The Midshipmen are favored by a field goal in Landover, and while I can almost never pull against a service academy, I see this game going the other way by about the same margin. I know I said ten, but I cannot resist this eleventh one... *LSU @ Arkansas: Seriously, Arkansas is favored here? This matchup articulates impeccably well the balance of strength and parity that is the SEC West this year: a ranked school (LSU) that played to overtime against the guys (#4 Alabama) favored THIS week to take down the #1 team in the nation (undefeated MSSU), is reckoned to LOSE by a field goal to a team that has gone the better part of two seasons without a single conference win (that, again, would be the Razorbacks). Well, shenanigans on that – Louisiana State by at LEAST a field goal.
Posted on: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 00:39:49 +0000
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