WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA The data this morning does not show much change overall in the forecasts going forward over the next 10 days, but significant details within the trend are changing. The big picture stays the same. We will be seeing a weak system come through tomorrow, and then next week will see more rain coming at us. But, its the details of how much rain and where that have been showing change. Lets cover the shorter term first. We are in between two systems right now. This is your break day. The last vestiges of the storm from Tuesday went through early this morning. There are still some light showers falling from the Cascades east this morning. Those will come to an end by midday with clearing skies. West of the Cascades we look to be partly cloudy this morning becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. There will be some clouds hanging around through the day from the Cascades east. Our next system is coming in over the ocean and will arrive as scheduled for tomorrow. But, this thing keeps getting weaker and weaker as it approaches. I am thinking it is going to be mostly a cloud producer. There will be some scattered showers for the Coast, from Douglas County north, and for the Cascades. Maybe, maybe a few light sprinkles for the Rogue Valley. That system will depart by Saturday morning and the result is we will have a pretty good looking weekend after all. Partly cloudy for Saturday and then mostly sunny for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 70s for the valleys. Next week we will see active weather across the Northwest. Looking here in our area I know we will see rain coming for Monday. But, what I am now seeing is that it looks like we will see that rain concentrated for the Coast, the mountains, and to the north of us. The Rogue Valley seeing a big rain is looking a lot less likely now. There is going to be some alright...dont get the idea that there will not be any. But, there is no disputing the fact that the data is showing that instead of seeing a big rain like we saw at the end of September when Medford had just over 2 inches in 24 hours, we are going to see an event more like Tuesdays now. That is what I am saying. The data calls for us to see unsettled and showery weather then persisting through the week. Longer range...the two main models are now split for the weekend of the 25th and 26th. One would see ridging building in and sunny weather for a few days. And then of course the other main model keeps us in the track for more systems coming in from the Gulf of Alaska. It is a classic coin flip here. It is way too soon to know which one of these is going to win out for sure. But, taking a look at the broader trend of what is happening...there would be a nod in favor of the wetter unsettled model becoming the one that is going to be right.
Posted on: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 14:20:47 +0000
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