WEATHER SYNOPSIS: Sept 13 at 07:30 pm ■ 0 Convection;1 LPA/s;1 Active;2 Possible Threat ■ ⊙ 15W.KALMAEGI (TYP) ⊙ → near 15.5N 126.5E approx 322 mi. East of Baler, Aurora. → WNW to NW w/ 75 kts max winds. STR breaks for NW path. → It could HIT(Landfall) or A NEAR MISS(Eye-wall) at Northern Tip of Cagayan. → Est. 34-84 kts(TS to TYP) winds w/in 200 km radius from the Center b/w 14th to 16th. → It will ENHANCED the SW MONSOON. → 90% confident of 5 days Track. ■■■■ RED Alert(Possible Path) - Monitor & Evacuate, if necessary. → Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Babuyan & Batanes Is. ■■■ ORANGE Alert - Monitor & Prepare. → Isabela, Kalinga, Abra, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Sur ■■ YELLOW Alert - Monitor the Updates → Central Luzon. ⊙ 96W SYSTEM ⊙ → near 9.5N 149E. → WNW to W w/ 15 kts max winds. → It could ENTER PAR b/w 15th to 17th. → TROPICAL STORM on 17th. → THREATENS Visayas-Mindanao in next few days. → Monitoring is advice. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Sept 09 ※ → Status: Continue an Eastward PROGRESSION reaching the Western Pacific by the end of this week. It is WEAK but may be strong enough to make some contribution to tropical weather during the next week or two. → South China Sea: SW Monsoon is ACTIVE and also allowed for a TC to form near Japan. → West Pacific Ocean: When it is located over Southeast Asia & moving eastwards. The risk of TC growth & development will be ELEVATED‘ or INCREASED. → Next MJO Update : Sept 16 ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.085 kph ~ TD:139 kts °° Rainfall: 1mm/min = 0.0394 in/min = 2.364 in/hr °° Distance: 1 mi = 1.609 km ■ Satellite Imagery: GOES & NOAA Satellite. ■ Color Indicators located at the bottom of each Imagery. ■ Category/Intensity by World Meteorological Organization ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update by NOAA-ESRL ■ VERIFY from NRL, CIMSS, NOAA, JTWC & WMO for PTU/PWS Forecast Tracks. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Sat, 13 Sep 2014 11:44:47 +0000
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