WEATHER UPDATE: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND UP TO 60 MPH AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL UP TO 1.5 IN DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. NEWEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THE SPC: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Hi everyone, It has been quite sometime since weve seen severe weather in our area, but that may happen this afternoon. Its a tricky forecast, since the computer models are kind of all over the place with the amounts, timing and coverage of the storms. They were putting in the precip yesterday then taking it out then putting it back in, so theyve been waffling back-and-forth all day yesterday. Today they are pretty consistent in developing storms for the afternoon over the NWA/RV area. I can tell you there is A LOT of instability and plenty of moisture in the air to fuel these storms IF they develop. The CAP or lid is also expected to be weaker on the eastern edge of a large ridge of high pressure centered over the central Rocky Mountains. SETUP: A weak cool front will be pushing in this afternoon along with tons of daytime heating. This front may provide the extra lift to form storms this afternoon. Very high water content is in place in the atmosphere (Precipitable Water values around 2), which basically means heavy rain with the stronger t-storms. TIMING: The overnight complex of storms never developed this morning, so the atmosphere isnt overworked and the sun is blazing heating the ground up. I expect storms to develop a little after the noon hour and these storms will move in an unusual direction to the S & SW at times due to the current weather pattern in place. THREAT: The storms that develop will likely be multi-cell storms (multiple updrafts causing a chain-reaction of new development along the outflow boundaries), so the main threats will be damaging straight-line winds along with hail up to 1.5 in diameter due to the extreme instability over the area (CAPE nearly 4,000 J/kg in spots). [technical jargon] :)
Posted on: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 14:50:14 +0000