Were living in fourth defining moment for European order. The first was post-1945: partition of Europe in spheres of interest; the US decision to stay in Europe -- to prevent another Weimar / weak League of nations Europe and to contain the Soviet Union in the emerging Cold War; US decision to integrate Western Europe; UK decision to not take the lead on the continent (not to sacrifice sovereignty); French-German decision to form the core of the EU. The second one was post-1989: US decision to support German unification against France and Britain; Russian decision to let Eastern Germany go; German decision to seek unification by confirming the formula of success of the past decades: united Germany embedded in European integration and transatlantic security. The third was the decision to enlarge Nato- and EU in the 1990s: Central Europe integrated into Western structures following the model of German unification: Nato in (but no troops); EU in. Moscow left Central and Eastern Europe and could not be integrated into EU structures because it was too big and too independent to be assimilated. The fourth defining moment: Euro crisis. Germany decides to take the lead and not let the Euro fail. Britain is not sure whether it want still to be part of a more integrated EU. Growing frustration, but also growing feeling that without the EU the entire European order would be put at risk. The fifth defining moment is now: Russia feels strong enough to follow its ambitions to regain full control over Eastern Europe again. West is unsure how to react: confront Russia over Eastern Europe or accept Russian dominance in the territories Moscow has controlled before 1991?
Posted on: Tue, 20 May 2014 09:26:16 +0000
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