#tristatewx #paducah May 9, 2014: A bit of a nail-biter forecast for meteorologists over the coming 72 hours. Will it or wont it rain on your weekend plans? There will be an * next to the weekend forecast details. :) Lets check it out! Changes since the last update... For southern Illinois and western Kentucky Well, first - the overnight rainfall was FAR less than expected for some of us. Rainfall totals over the western half of the region were spot on (see the estimated rainfall map I posted earlier this morning - the one with all the pretty colors). But for those of us in the Metropolis/Paducah area - far less rain fell than I forecast. I only measured 0.12 here at the Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois. Oops! Now, onto the updated forecast 1. As of this typing, the first wave of precipitation has moved east of southern Illinois and most of western Kentucky. That leaves us dry for the coming hours. Sun is even poking through the clouds in many areas. This will build CAPE values into the afternoon hours. If you have followed me for very long then you will remember that CAPE is basically available potential energy in the atmosphere. The higher the CAPE numbers the more energy available for thunderstorms. Sun may be your friend at the beach, but the sun is rarely your friend on a day where thunderstorms are possible. Thunderstorms will redevelop later this afternoon and spread back into the area. There are concerns for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (remember that officially a severe thunderstorm is defined as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, 1 hail or larger, and/or a tornado). Those are the numbers that trigger the National Weather Service to issue a warning. A line of storms will form over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri between 1 pm and 3 pm. This line will then move eastward into the rest of the of the area. Large hail (quarter size or larger) and a few damaging wind reports will be possible. Tornado threat appears minimal. Never zero in May - but minimal. Overall the severe weather risk at any given location should be low - most areas should, however, pick up measurable rainfall. Those with outdoor activities this afternoon and evening should definitely monitor radars and the latest watches/warnings. There may be a few issued. Rainfall totals this afternoon and evening will vary greatly across the region. Thunderstorms can drop an inch of rain in less than 30 minutes. Neighboring areas can receive less than a quarter of an inch. Generally rainfall totals should be in the 0.40-0.80 range. Again, much heavier in the most intense thunderstorms. Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities later this afternoon. 2. Once again, no major changes to the ongoing forecast for Saturday into Sunday night. I am holding my breath on rain chances during this time period. KEEP IN MIND that there are definitely going to be at least a few scattered showers and thunderstorms pop up on Saturday into Sunday night. The atmosphere will be JUICED up and unstable. There wont be a trigger, however, near our region. That means activity SHOULD remain scattered in nature (if not isolated). Remember the * in the weekend forecast? The one fly in the ointment is the placement of a complex of thunderstorms that will form over parts of southwest and central Missouri during the overnight hours on Saturday. There remain some questions as to where this will area of heavy thunderstorms will track. I am currently forecasting it to track through central Missouri and then into the St Louis area. However, not all the data supports this happening. Some data pushes it much further south. If there are going to be any major changes in the forecast then this would be the reason why. Bottom line on this subject - if you have outdoor plans on Saturday into Sunday night then check your radar app from time to time - check the updated forecast. If you are camping then monitor updates - take your weather radio along with you. If that thunderstorm complex were to push into our region then strong winds, very heavy downpours, and frequent lightning would accompany it. Again, I believe the complex has a better chance of staying north of most of our area. Details of the forecast... Friday - Partly sunny - dry for the remainder of the morning. Thunderstorms will redevelop later this afternoon and evening. Storms will move in from the west/southwest. Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events. A couple of storms could produce hail and strong winds. Tornado risk appears minimal - not zero - but minimal. It wont be quite as warm. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s. South/southwest winds of 10-20 mph and gusty at times. Winds will be stronger near thunderstorms with gusts above 40 mph possible. Friday night - A period of showers and thunderstorms - a few heavy downpours possible (especially early in the night). Evening thunderstorms could produce a few reports of hail and strong winds. Precipitation becoming more scattered late at night (after midnight). Overnight lows in the 60s. South/southwest winds of 10-15 mph. Gusty near thunderstorms. Lightning is a concern for any outdoor events. Saturday - A few morning showers and thunderstorms (mainly before 5 am). Then a small chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Rain chances around 30% during the morning and 20% late morning into the afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Saturday night and Sunday - Partly cloudy. A chance (10%-20%) for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Sunday night - A few clouds. Mild. Overnight lows in the 60s. Monday - Partly sunny. An isolated thunderstorm possible (10%-20% chance). Warm. Highs in the lower 80s. Gusty southerly winds. Monday night - A chance for showers and thunderstorms, late. Mild. Lows in the 60s. Tuesday - A period or two of showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 80 degrees. Tuesday night - Showers and thunderstorms ending. Overnight lows in the 50s. Wednesday - Partly sunny and cooler. Highs only in the 60s. Lows by Thursday morning will be back down into the 40s. MUCH cooler towards the middle of next week with below normal temperatures. Storm tracking links will be posted below (next comment).
Posted on: Fri, 09 May 2014 15:27:41 +0000
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